THE current low economic growth rate in China overall, should not significantly affect Papua New Guinea directly, says Institute of National Affairs (INA) executive director Paul Barker.
Barker said it would impact some countries in the region including Australia and those with major tourism industries and investment from China.
He said at this stage, the demand for the major products that PNG exports to China were in high global demand, notably the liquefied natural gas (LNG).
“The prices for oil is wavering at prices between US$100 (about K344.52) and US$120 (about K413.43) per barrel and LNG prices are rising above US$40 (about K137.81) per Btu (British Thermal Unit) in the face of the energy shortages brought about largely from the ongoing Ukrainian invasion, coinciding with global recovery of demand,” Barker said.
“Markets will adjust over the next months, but without the conclusion of this war, energy prices are unlikely to fall, particularly in the lead up to the northern hemisphere winter.
“For many years now, China, with its consistently high economic growth rate and vast market, has been the driving force of the global economy, particularly for raw materials from this region, but increasingly diversifying across other markets.
“Since the roll back of the pandemic restrictions across most of the world, the US with its strong economic recovery, has been powering global demand.
“Growing inflation rates and particularly the measures to restrain inflation being imposed by Central Banks, notably higher interest rates, may subdue this global growth over the next months, particularly in some countries.
“In China, the restraint on the usual strong run of economic growth, is largely self-imposed by the continued stringent lockdowns, shutting down entire major cities.
The National / Pacific Business News
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